Proposal to run another "DXdao Community Competition for Omen Markets - Batch #2"

Draft: Proposal to run another "DXdao Community Competition for Omen Markets - Batch #2"

DXdao community has expressed interest in running a next Omen Markets Competition.

At the end of 2020, DXdao community ran a Competition to discover and fund Omen markets from the community.

See references here:

This post requests feedback on the idea to run another expanded Competition.

Proposal:
Reward the top ten Markets

  • Top 5 markets win 200 xDAI and 1000 REP on xDXdao
  • Next 5 markets win 100 xDAI and 500 REP on xDXdao

Total Rewards Summary:
1500 xDAI and 7500 REP on xDXdao

Note on timing: to be effective, the Competition scheme take about 2-3 weeks to start, run and execute. We need to give enough time for people to submit markets and then 4-5 days for REP holders to vote on winners.

The winning markets will be funded in varying amounts by DXdao on Omen on xDai Chain (assuming there are no key errors with market) .

Next steps:

  • Forum discussion
  • Any new ideas?
  • Move to create Proposal for Competition

Please provide feedback.

9 Likes

Great & timely idea to drive interest towards Omen leading up to the OMN token launch.
One bull market thought: should we lower the number of markets & up the xDAI per winning market?

2 Likes

I agree, I think we may get more engagement fewer markets (focusing participants) & higher rewards.

One thought is that we could have X categories (3-5) and then provide a large reward (i.e. 500 xDAI & 2000 REP) for the winner of each market.

Some easy topics: Sports, Politics, Culture, Crypto, Entertainment?

2 Likes

After dicussing this proposal on today’s governance call, and accounting for pulpmachina and amphiboly’s ideas:

I personally support/suggest:

  1. Adding OMN token allocation in the mix. It adds an immense value with no extra out-of-pocket expense. It offers Omen-specific governance rights, unlimited asset appreciation potential with incentive to help promote Omen long-term past the competition.

  2. Adding categories and picking a winner/s for each. Not having a pre-defined list of categories may result in participants piling on few categories, and neglecting others if not explicitly mentioned, thus the platform ending up lacking in diversity. Once a contestant suggests an avid winner, others could try to do cheap variations of it. /maybe keep a timeline of entries in case we have many similar ones to chose from/.

  • Less categories.
  • 7 categories, each with 1st & 2nd place.
  • 7 categories, with only 1 winner for each.
  • 8 categories, each with 1st & 2nd place.
  • 8 categories, with only 1 winner for each.
  • 9 categories, each with 1st & 2nd place.
  • 9 categories, with only 1 winner for each.

0 voters

  1. Increasing the total value of the xDai in the whole rewards pool. /e.g if 15k for 8 categories with 2 winners in each => 1.25k each for 8 first places & 625 each for 8 second places/
  • Less than $10k
  • 10k
  • 15k
  • 20k
  • moar

0 voters

Also, not sure if rewards should compound if one person suggests more than one winning market ideas, e.g. 10 ideas from one person resulting in one 1st and two 2nd places. It’s rare, but should be considered beforehand. Maybe allow them to compound to motivate them /up to 3/?

Taking a step back and looking from a higher level, we should look back at the first Omen Markets Competitions and then see how we can improve it.

The “Community Competition for Omen Markets - Batch #1” can be found here:

https://alchemy.daostack.io/dao/0xe716ec63c5673b3a4732d22909b38d779fa47c3f/crx/proposal/0x9b5eeb8c53de997d1508952f4d6764e21ba1b8af042be1a0b426ae18d616dd93

In order to improve upon things for the 2nd competition, lets look back at the first competition.

To summarize the first Competition:

There were 18 Submissions from 9 different wallets

The reward was 100 xDAI and 500 REP in xDXdao for the top three winning markets.

The top three winning markets will be created and funded by DXdao.

The competition entry period ran for 7 days, and voting period ran for 5 days:
Competition start time: Dec 13, 2020 13:00 EST (-05:00)
Submission end time: Dec 19, 2020 13:00 EST (-05:00)
Voting start time: Dec 19, 2020 13:01 EST (-05:00)
Competition end time: Dec 24, 2020 13:00 EST (-05:00)

REP holders in xDXdao were the voters on the competition.

An estimation of about 11% of total REP on xDXdao voted on the markets. Looks to be under 10 REP holders.

The top three markets that the REP holders voted on were funded on Omen Mainnet and then also Omen xDai.

  1. Will uniswap v3 launch in Q1 2021?
  • Mainnet volume → 12,300 DAI
  • xDai volume → 0 xDai
  1. Will Compound Chain launch by the end of Q2 2021?
  • Mainnet volume → 0 DAI
  • xDai volume → 900 xDai
  1. Will Joe Biden be president by the end of 2021?
  • Mainnet volume → 3880 DAI
  • xDai volume → 140 xDai

So some takeaways from the first competition.

  1. We need many more participants
  2. We need many more market submissions
  3. We need better markets
  4. We need more voter participants
  5. We need REP holders to pick more successful/popular markets

To accomplish these improvement goals, what do we think is the best way to set up the competition?

We’ve already had some good feedback.

Some open questions:

Will more or fewer prizes improve all these things?

Will bigger prize money and/or more REP in general improve these things?

How do we get better choices by REP holders?

How much funding should these markets get from DXdao?

How do you make this Competition a success no matter what the results?

What if the prize money was $50k in total?

Would the marketing, hype and awareness be worth it?

Is it important to establish categories? If so should you use the categories on Omen?

How do we attract the world’s best prediction markets specialist to Omen? Bigger money? More publicity?


Now thinking about how to improve the competition, do we still have the same thoughts.

Also, it’s important to fit the competition into the parameters of the Alchemy competition scheme.

2 Likes

Hello [theRFnoob here],

nice initiative!

I am going to make a somewhat lengthy post with my observations, etc. These are not my suggestions for the markets (in another future posts), but kind of ‘strategical’ observations.

This is intented to be read mostly by the people of the Omen squad, but of course it might be of general interest.

Facts:

  1. The previous competition winners (see link) were: (1st and 2nd) about launch dates of DeFi protocols and (3rd) about American politics,
  2. The market about “Trump winning 2020 elections” got a lot of attention (which is good) and was eventually resolved correctly.

My view on the ideal markets: The markets that we want have the following characteristics:

  1. their outcome should be unclear at the start (ideally ~50%/50%), and very clear at the end.
  2. there is progress in the evaluation of the probabilities over several days /weeks (as opposed to minutes). This gives people time to think, trade the conditional tokens, etc. A quick event (like a 10 min event) is bad, because people may not be able to trade in such a short amount of time, they might not be in front of their computer, etc.
  3. The bet should not be subsumed by another product. For instance, why bet on “Ethereum will reach 10k” if I can just buy 1ETH instead, or go margin long on Binance?
  4. Not too technical: it should attract a wide range of people, and not just 5 specialists interested in a very specific topic.
  5. Should attract “tribalism spirit”… you bet because you want to ‘fight’ for your camp :stuck_out_tongue:

Good examples: The winners of the previous competition [see Facts(1)] and the Trump market [see Facts(2)] are all good examples, they satisfy all the 5 points above, in particular:

  • regarding (3): there is no other way to bet/profit from these events. “Just buy UNI tokens” is not really equivalent to bet on “Uniswap v3 will launch in Q12021”.
  • regarding (5): the Uniswap community is big and full of fanboys willing to express their trust/admiration for their beloved devs with a bet.

Remark: actually I claim that the bet on UniV3 launching by Q1 is not ideal wrt point (1) above because the outcome could be uncertain: e.g., if a very crippled version of V3 was launched…Not 100% ideal.

Bad examples:

  • A tennis match: too quick (not days/weeks, just hours/minutes) and if it rains, the match is postponed resulting in an invalid result.
  • A crypto bet “DXD will reach 1k DAI by end of 2021”… again, most people will just buy or sell DXD…
  • The entire crypto market cap will go to 10T by the end of 2021: hard to quantify the result (uncertainty in outcome), do you count WBTC and BTC twice or not? etc.
  • DXdao will release a MVP of MESA by the end of June 2021: too specialistic, many people have no idea of what MESA is.
  • Will Donald Trump Pardon Ross Ulbricht? (Jan 2021): again, too specialistic. I am Italian and I have no idea how R. Ulbricht is. We should seek for a global audience.
3 Likes

Very thoughtful, appreciate the comprehensive recap and list of open questions.

I agree, before diving into the specifics I think it could be helpful to build a consensus on OKRs and KPIs for the competition.

I.e., what are the objectives for the competition, what results can we expect in a success scenario, and how do we measure those results? Then it’ll be easier to make decisions about funding, whether to have categories or how many categories to have, etc.

@sky, I think the questions you outlined (in terms of purpose) can be sorted into a few buckets:

Objective 1: Increase visibility for Omen.

Key Result 1: Increased user engagement.

  • KPI 1: Percentage increase in bets per Omen holder per month in month of / month after competition over Last 12 Months (LTM) average.

  • KPI 2: Percentage increase in markets created by Omen community per month in month of / month after competition over LTM average.

Key Result 1: Increase Omen holders.

  • KPI 1: # new Omen holders whose first bet was related to competition.

  • KPI 2: Percentage increase in Omen holders in month of / month after competition over LTM average.

Key Result 3: Social media visibility for Omen.

  • KPI 1: Percentage increase in DxDAO followers in month of / month after competition over LTM average.

  • KPI 2: Percentage increase in engagement w/ DxDAO posts in month of / month after competition over LTM average.

  • KPI 3: # of prediction market influencers who follow DxDAO in month of / month after competition.

Key Result 3: More community members.

  • KPI 1: Percentage increase of new Keybase/Discord members in month of / month after competition over LTM average.

  • KPI 2: Percentage increase of members of Omen related Keybase/Discord channels in month of / after competition over LTM average.

  • KPI 3: Percentage increase in DAO Talk forum posts w/ omen tag in month of / after competition over LTM average.

Key Result 4: Participation of prediction market specialists.

  • KPI 1: # of prediction market specialists that mention competition on social media.

  • KPI 2: # of prediction market specialists who mention participating in competition on social media or elsewhere.

I welcome feedback from anyone has ideas on additional OKRs / KPIs or ways to improve the one’s I mentioned.

From there, we need to prioritize our OKRs. Since I’m new here, I’m obviously lacking context on Omen, but my intuition would rank them (1) increase Omen holders, (2) generate attention for Omen on social media, (3) attract prediction market influencers.

It’s hard to argue with more users, especially since users will organically generate attention and visibility for Omen (as they have skin in the game). That buzz can attract influencers, creating a flywheel.

Look forward to hearing everyone’s thoughts, and thanks @Sky for providing a thoughtful jumping off point!

I welcome feedback from anyone has ideas on additional OKRs / KPIs or ways to improve the one’s I mentioned. From there, we need to prioritize our OKRs.

Ah, little edit – I only provided one objective, so I guess I meant prioritize the key results. Anyways, what they’re called doesn’t really matter, my point is that we should just agree on a set of goals to consider and then prioritize them! Then we can think about cost (i.e. if the key goal is to increase the number of Omen holders / market participants, we can compare the size of the prizes to other marketing spend strategies, if the key goal is to attract prediction market specialists we can think about how we structure categories may affect their participation).

Another question – do we have any data on user growth / engagement / etc attributable to the last competition?

There has been some active discussion in this thread, among active Omen community members and on the weekly DXbiz call.

Openness:
Some suggestions are to put more restrictions around what type of markets should be proposed. Some community members think a smart strategy could be to leave the Competition as open as possible and see what new ideas come out of it. And leave it in the hands of the voters to choose the ideal markets.

Anyone is welcome to share with the voters what they think make good markets, eventually helping to guide the choosing of the winners.

In this thread, you will also find suggestions for what make good markets. Proposers of markets can keep these suggestions in mind but are welcome to propose markets outside of these suggestions.

Attractive:
Another consensus seems to be to have a sizable range of attractive prizes in order to market the competition to the greater ecosystem and attract attention. A goal would be to attract over 100 market submissions during the competition.

Substantial time to enter:
Extend the Market submission period to 10 days

Here is a Summary of the parameters for this Competition:

Reward the top ten Markets:

  • Top 5 markets win 1500 xDAI and 750 REP on xDXdao
  • Next 5 markets win 500 xDAI and 250 REP on xDXdao

Total Rewards Summary:

  • 10,000 xDAI and 5,000 REP on xDXdao

Proposed timing:

Competition entry period to run for 10 days, and voting period to run for 5 days:
Competition start time: May 17, 2021
Submission end time: May 26, 2021
Voting start time: May 26, 2021
Competition end time: May 31, 2021

REP holders in xDXdao are the voters in the competition.

Next steps:
Next step is for this to become a Competition Scheme proposal on xDXdao, in order to kick things off.

While the Competition is getting prepped, it would be great for community to continue sharing ideas and best practices for market creators and market voters.

There is a proposal to activate the Competition on xDXdao:

DXdao Community Competition for Omen Markets - Batch #2:

1 Like